























⌾ ‘Fantasia on Edukit’ by Norman Fellows
⌾ ‘Fantasia on Edukit’ by Norman Fellows
• Map of earthquakes (M6.0+) 1900-2017 [1]
This article is predicated on a comment made by Cedric Price, namely:—
“The whole question of disaster planning is unlikely to even be satisfactorily resolved in physical terms. Only when Agadir and Aberfan are recognised as likely events will the necessary legislation and management enable ‘disaster‘ planning to afford sufficient anticipatory design effort and product.”
Price, 1970, ‘Surface oil containment‘ [2]
Contents[hide] 1 What do we know? 2 Why do we care? 3 What can we do? 4 References 5 Related articles on Designing Buildings |
1.1 Earthquakes
Table 1 below indicates the numbers of earthquakes and resulting deaths since Agadir:—
Decade | Number of Earthquakes | Number of Deaths | Source |
1961-1970 | 42 | 126,443 | Wikipedia |
1971-1980 | 42 | 349,908 | Wikipedia |
1981-1990 | 43 | 91,328 | Wikipedia |
1991-2000 | 63 | 62,176 | Wikipedia |
2001-2010 | 345 | 612,956 | Wikipedia |
2011-2020 | 372 | 41,910 | Wikipedia |
TOTALS | 907 | 1,284,721 |
Thus we know:—
1.2 Landslides
Table 2 below indicates the numbers of landslides and resulting deaths since Aberfan:—
Decade | Number of Landslides | Number of Deaths | Source |
1966-1970 | 7 | 22,674 | Wikipedia |
1971-1980 | 11 | 1,287 | ib. |
1981-1990 | 5 | 23,188 | ib. |
1991-2000 | 7 | 30,096 | ib |
2001-2010 | 16 | 3,340 | ib. |
2011-2020 | 37 | 9,162 | ib’ |
TOTALS | 83 | 89,797 |
Thus we know:—
2.1 Research
• Air Structures Research: diagram for surface oil containment – Cedric Price © CCA used with permission
Drawing 72 36 above illustrates a project which occurred just before the Torrey Canyon oil spill, This disaster ied to a number of changes in international regulations. For example:—
“…the International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage (CLC) of 1969, which imposed strict liability on ship owners without the need to prove negligence, and the 1973 International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships.“ (Wikipedia)
However, according to Wikipedia, there have been 212 confirmed spills since Torrey Canyon.
Furthermore, the lists of disasters below indicate the increasing numbers of disasters:—
Thus we care because the numbers of disasters and deaths indicated in Tables 1 and 2; the number of confirmed spills since Torrey Canyon; and the increasing numbers of disasters; each provide evidence to support the argument, namely:—
2,2 Development
The graph below indicates the trend in the number of disasters since 1900. [3]
In contrast, the bar chart below indicates the number of deaths from all disasters for each decade since the 1900s. [4]
Thus we also care because (a) the trend in the number of disasters is upwards and (b) although the average numbers of deaths from disasters has reduced from more than 500,000 in the 1920s to less than 50,000 in the 2010s, the downward trend has effectively plateaued since the 1990s.
3.1 Interest
This article affirms its premises and proves the validity of the argument.
It therefore reaches a valid conclusion, namely:—
The crucial question now is what can architects do?
In the ‘ACTION and inaction’ section of ‘Works II’ Cedric Price has pointed at:—
“…reasons for architects to involve themselves continuously in anticipatory design as recommended by Buckminster Fuller.”
Price, C., 1984, ‘Works II’, aka ‘The Square Book‘
In fact, we know from a talk that Buckminster Fuller recommended a way for architects to involve themselves:—
“There is an effective strategy open to the architects. Whereas doctors deal with the interior organisms of man, architects deal with the exterior organisms of man. Architects might join with one another to carry on their work in laboratories as do doctors in anticipatory medicine. Architects might solve design problems of world-resource use before people get into resource troubles. Architects might thus join forces, as do scientists, with the integrity of inter-self accrediting of the respective abilities of each individual on the team. Architects might begin the laboratory pooling of their resource capabilities at the university level.”
Fuller, B., 1959, ‘The Comprehensive Man’, quoted in Fellows, N., 2022, ‘Anticipatory Design‘
Thus this article advocates:—
3.2 Engagement
This article was written by Norman Fellows.
Fellows, N. (2022), ‘Anticipatory Design‘, Designing Buildings
Our World in Data (2020) ‘Number of recorded natural, disaster events, All natural disasters, 1900 to 2019‘ [3]
Our World in Data (2020) ‘Decadal average: Number of deaths from disasters‘ [4]
Phoenix7777 (2018) ‘Map of earthquakes 1900-2017‘ [1]
Price, C. (1970) Cedric Price Supplement No. 1, AD/10/70 [2]
Price, C. (1966-1971) ‘Air Structures Research‘, Canadian Centre for Architecture
Wikipedia (2022) ‘Lists of disasters’
Wikipedia (2022) ‘Lists of 20th-century earthquakes‘
Wikipedia (2022) ‘List of earthquakes 2001–2010‘
Wikipedia (2022) ‘List of earthquakes 2011-2020‘
Wikipedia (2022) ‘List of landslides‘
Wikipedia (2022) ‘List of oil spills‘
—Archiblog 08:53, 11 Sep 2022 (BST)
1.1 An etymology of the term ‘anticipatory design’ found its earliest recorded occurrence in the ‘Annual Discourse to the RIBA‘ delivered by Buckminster Fuller in which he defined his work, namely:—
“comprehensive anticipatory design science”
Fuller, 1958, ‘Experimental Probing of Architectural Initiative’ [1]
The next occurrence was found in a talk in which Buckminster Fuller referred to:—
“comprehensive anticipatory design science architects“
Fuller, 1959, ‘The Comprehensive Man’ [2]
Thus we know from his talk that Buckminster Fuller recommended a way for architects to involve themselves:—
“There is an effective strategy open to the architects. Whereas doctors deal with the interior organisms of man, architects deal with the exterior organisms of man. Architects might join with one another to carry on their work in laboratories as do doctors in anticipatory medicine. Architects might solve design problems of world-resource use before people get into resource troubles. Architects might thus join forces, as do scientists, with the integrity of inter-self accrediting of the respective abilities of each individual on the team. Architects might begin the laboratory pooling of their resource capabilities at the university level.”
Fuller, ib.
1.2 An interview of Cedric Price was conducted in which he defined his work, namely:—
“anticipatory design” Price, in Fellows, N., 1993a, ‘Transcript – Interview of Cedric Price‘ [3]
However, the same etymology also found the first recorded occurrence of the term ‘anticipatory design‘ made by Cedric Price, namely:—
“Only when Agadir and Aberfan are recognised as likely events will the necessary legislation and management enable ‘disaster‘ planning to afford sufficient anticipatory design effort and product.”
Price, 1970, ‘Cedric Price Supplement No. 1′ [4]
Thus we know:—
2.1 The way in which the work of Buckminster Fuller and Cedric Price are related sparked a follow-up interview of Cedric Price in which he was asked :—
“Are (“comprehensive anticipatory design science” and “anticipatory design“) synonymous or are there important differences?”
Fellows, N., 1996, ‘Transcript – Interview of Cedric Price (3)’ [5]
Cedric Price replied:—
“I think the most important difference is the ‘anticipatory design‘ – which is my word (sic) – and ‘anticipatory design science’. The difference between that is that I am assuming that there is a science involved with various aspects of anticipatory design but my assumption is therefore narrowing it down to relation to systems or products that result from such design. So mine is a narrowing of Bucky’s. That’s the main point. The comprehensive is as good as you make it. You know we both agree it should be comprehensive. I think that my concept of comprehensive would be limited through lack of comprehensivity (sic) in the Bucky phraseology. […] Bucky’s was fuller but he was – I mean it was more comprehensive but he was interested in a design science. I was assuming there is a design science and just evidencing it in actual objects or systems.”
Price, 1996, in Fellows, N., ib.
Thus there are important differences between Fuller and Price’s work.
2.2 The important differences quoted verbatim above indicate that Cedric Price identified the need to define his own work and proposed a solution to himself in which he matched his ordering – i.e. ‘anticipatory design‘ – against Buckminster Fuller’s ordering – i.e. ‘comprehensive anticipatory design science’.
Thus this article is based on the major premise:—
However, much of Cedric Price’s early work on anticipatory was published in an influential architectural ‘design science’ monthly, namely, Architectural Design (AD). Thus the minor premise of this article is:—
3.1 If we can accept both premises then we can draw the conclusion:—
The AD in the conclusion refers to the international journal Architectural Design edited by Monica Pidgeon from 1946 until 1975. However, the magazine has also been described as:—
“this influential architectural ‘design science’ monthly”
Marchbank, P. [6]
Thus we can fill the gap left by Pidgeon when she left Architectural Design with Anticipatory Design or AD for short.
3.2
This article was written by Norman Fellows. It is a revision of an outline published on the AD website at https://anticipatorydesign.wordpress.com/
Fuller, R. B. (1963) Ideas and Integrities, New York, Collier [1] [2]
Fellows, N. (1993) Transcript – Interview of Cedric Price, Archiblog, Google Drive [3]
Price, C. (1970) Cedric Price Supplement No. 1, AD/10/70 [4]
Fellows, N. (1996) Transcript – Interview of Cedric Price (3), Unpublished [5]
Marchbank, P. (2021) Magazines: Architectural Design (AD), pearcemarchbank.com [6]
—Archiblog 07:44, 11 Sep 2022 (BST)
Fellows, N. (2022) Domestikit
“I think the housing studies which came out of the Potteries Thinkbelt are still very significant indeed and, you know, there are infinite ways they could be developed but the basic principles there of short-life twenty-five year renewal cycle, services as far as possible above ground, leasehold rather than ownership – in other words, the house as a machine like a car which you can park and renew when it becomes defunct – that to me is still a very important statement which has yet to be developed properly because in this country buildings are, to quote Bucky Fuller, “Fancy nozzles on servicing systems of land”, and they are not seen as homes at all – just as investment in a nozzle.”
Steve Mullin (2016) in AA (2016) ‘Cedric Price Day Part 1‘
Fellows, N. (2016) Dukeries Thinkbelt
Fellows, N. (2015) Edukit
Composed of 238 still images and designed to provide a visual expression of the comprehensivity of Edukit, ‘A Glimpse of Edukit (2015) [Demo]’ serves as an introduction to the World Educational System proposed by Norman Fellows. In this short simulation, images are combined into seven separate digital sequences, projected simultaneously onto seven 6-by-9-metre screens (after Eames). The real-world version will include over 2,000 still and moving images, have a running time of 12 minutes, and be shown in 60m diameter Fuller Domes at the approximate population centre of each of the world’s continents except the Antarctic.
Norman Fellows (2015)
⦿ A continuously updated thesis
⦿ A continuous approach to architecture
⦿ Archi[tecture... ...we]blog
⦿ Archi[tecture... ...we]mash
⦿ The short-life house as a national service
⦿ World Educational System
⦿ From Education Automation to Edukit by Norman Fellows
A research project by Norman Fellows
An update by Norman Fellows
⦿ An archival holding
⦿ A housing research and development programme
⦿ From Original Conception to Possible Development
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