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⌾ ‘Fantasia on Edukit’ by Norman Fellows

Disaster Planning

ACTION

• Map of earthquakes (M6.0+) 1900-2017 [1]

This article is predicated on a comment made by Cedric Price, namely:—

“The whole question of disaster planning is unlikely to even be satisfactorily resolved in physical terms. Only when Agadir and Aberfan are recognised as likely events will the necessary legislation and management enable ‘disaster‘ planning to afford sufficient anticipatory design effort and product.”

Price, 1970, ‘Surface oil containment‘ [2]

Contents[hide] 1 What do we know? 2 Why do we care? 3 What can we do? 4 References 5 Related articles on Designing Buildings

What do we know?

1.1 Earthquakes

The first point is do we recognise Agadir as a likely event?

Table 1 below indicates the numbers of earthquakes and resulting deaths since Agadir:—

Decade	Number of Earthquakes	Number of Deaths	Source
1961-1970	42	126,443	Wikipedia
1971-1980	42	349,908	Wikipedia
1981-1990	43	91,328	Wikipedia
1991-2000	63	62,176	Wikipedia
2001-2010	345	612,956	Wikipedia
2011-2020	372	41,910	Wikipedia
TOTALS	907	1,284,721

Thus we know:—

… that Agadir is a likely event.

1.2 Landslides

The second point is do we recognise Aberfan as a likely event?

Table 2 below indicates the numbers of landslides and resulting deaths since Aberfan:—

Decade	Number of Landslides	Number of Deaths	Source
1966-1970	7	22,674	Wikipedia
1971-1980	11	1,287	ib.
1981-1990	5	23,188	ib.
1991-2000	7	30,096	ib
2001-2010	16	3,340	ib.
2011-2020	37	9,162	ib’
TOTALS	83	89,797

Thus we know:—

… that Aberfan is a likely event.

Why do we care?

2.1 Research

The next point is “why should an ARCHITECT be interested”. (Price, ib., capitals in original)

• Air Structures Research: diagram for surface oil containment – Cedric Price © CCA used with permission

Drawing 72 36 above illustrates a project which occurred just before the Torrey Canyon oil spill, This disaster ied to a number of changes in international regulations. For example:—

“…the International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage (CLC) of 1969, which imposed strict liability on ship owners without the need to prove negligence, and the 1973 International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships.“ (Wikipedia)

However, according to Wikipedia, there have been 212 confirmed spills since Torrey Canyon.

Furthermore, the lists of disasters below indicate the increasing numbers of disasters:—

Thus we care because the numbers of disasters and deaths indicated in Tables 1 and 2; the number of confirmed spills since Torrey Canyon; and the increasing numbers of disasters; each provide evidence to support the argument, namely:—

… that the legislation and management deemed necessary by Cedric Price is missing.

2,2 Development

The final point is how much anticipatory design effort and product do we deem sufficient?

The graph below indicates the trend in the number of disasters since 1900. [3]

In contrast, the bar chart below indicates the number of deaths from all disasters for each decade since the 1900s. [4]

Thus we also care because (a) the trend in the number of disasters is upwards and (b) although the average numbers of deaths from disasters has reduced from more than 500,000 in the 1920s to less than 50,000 in the 2010s, the downward trend has effectively plateaued since the 1990s.

What can we do?

3.1 Interest

This article affirms its premises and proves the validity of the argument.

It therefore reaches a valid conclusion, namely:—

… that the amount of anticipatory design effort and product we deem sufficient must be enough to mitigate the effects of the increasing number of disasters and to reduce the number of deaths from disasters to zero.

The crucial question now is what can architects do?

In the ‘ACTION and inaction’ section of ‘Works II’ Cedric Price has pointed at:—

“…reasons for architects to involve themselves continuously in anticipatory design as recommended by Buckminster Fuller.”

Price, C., 1984, ‘Works II’, aka ‘The Square Book‘

In fact, we know from a talk that Buckminster Fuller recommended a way for architects to involve themselves:—

“There is an effective strategy open to the architects. Whereas doctors deal with the interior organisms of man, architects deal with the exterior organisms of man. Architects might join with one another to carry on their work in laboratories as do doctors in anticipatory medicine. Architects might solve design problems of world-resource use before people get into resource troubles. Architects might thus join forces, as do scientists, with the integrity of inter-self accrediting of the respective abilities of each individual on the team. Architects might begin the laboratory pooling of their resource capabilities at the university level.”

Fuller, B., 1959, ‘The Comprehensive Man’, quoted in Fellows, N., 2022, ‘Anticipatory Design‘

Thus this article advocates:—

… we can go beyond merely caring about disaster planning – i.e. having an interest in it – and actively engage with it.

3.2 Engagement

To be continued…

This article was written by Norman Fellows.

References

Fellows, N. (2022), ‘Anticipatory Design‘, Designing Buildings

Our World in Data (2020) ‘Number of recorded natural, disaster events, All natural disasters, 1900 to 2019‘ [3]

Our World in Data (2020) ‘Decadal average: Number of deaths from disasters‘ [4]

Phoenix7777 (2018) ‘Map of earthquakes 1900-2017‘ [1]

Price, C. (1970) Cedric Price Supplement No. 1, AD/10/70 [2]

Price, C. (1966-1971) ‘Air Structures Research‘, Canadian Centre for Architecture

Wikipedia (2022) ‘Lists of disasters’

Wikipedia (2022) ‘Lists of 20th-century earthquakes‘

Wikipedia (2022) ‘List of earthquakes 2001–2010‘

Wikipedia (2022) ‘List of earthquakes 2011-2020‘

Wikipedia (2022) ‘List of landslides‘

Wikipedia (2022) ‘List of oil spills‘

What do we know?

1.1 An etymology of the term ‘anticipatory design’ found its earliest recorded occurrence in the ‘Annual Discourse to the RIBA‘ delivered by Buckminster Fuller in which he defined his work, namely:—

“comprehensive anticipatory design science”

Fuller, 1958, ‘Experimental Probing of Architectural Initiative’ [1]

The next occurrence was found in a talk in which Buckminster Fuller referred to:—

“comprehensive anticipatory design science architects“

Fuller, 1959, ‘The Comprehensive Man’ [2]

Thus we know from his talk that Buckminster Fuller recommended a way for architects to involve themselves:—

Fuller, ib.

1.2 An interview of Cedric Price was conducted in which he defined his work, namely:—

“anticipatory design” Price, in Fellows, N., 1993a, ‘Transcript – Interview of Cedric Price‘ [3]

However, the same etymology also found the first recorded occurrence of the term ‘anticipatory design‘ made by Cedric Price, namely:—

“Only when Agadir and Aberfan are recognised as likely events will the necessary legislation and management enable ‘disaster‘ planning to afford sufficient anticipatory design effort and product.”

Price, 1970, ‘Cedric Price Supplement No. 1′ [4]

Thus we know:—

… that the work of Buckminster Fuller and Cedric Price are related.

Why do we care?

2.1 The way in which the work of Buckminster Fuller and Cedric Price are related sparked a follow-up interview of Cedric Price in which he was asked :—

“Are (“comprehensive anticipatory design science” and “anticipatory design“) synonymous or are there important differences?”

Fellows, N., 1996, ‘Transcript – Interview of Cedric Price (3)’ [5]

Cedric Price replied:—

“I think the most important difference is the ‘anticipatory design‘ – which is my word (sic) – and ‘anticipatory design science’. The difference between that is that I am assuming that there is a science involved with various aspects of anticipatory design but my assumption is therefore narrowing it down to relation to systems or products that result from such design. So mine is a narrowing of Bucky’s. That’s the main point. The comprehensive is as good as you make it. You know we both agree it should be comprehensive. I think that my concept of comprehensive would be limited through lack of comprehensivity (sic) in the Bucky phraseology. […] Bucky’s was fuller but he was – I mean it was more comprehensive but he was interested in a design science. I was assuming there is a design science and just evidencing it in actual objects or systems.”

Price, 1996, in Fellows, N., ib.

Thus there are important differences between Fuller and Price’s work.

2.2 The important differences quoted verbatim above indicate that Cedric Price identified the need to define his own work and proposed a solution to himself in which he matched his ordering – i.e. ‘anticipatory design‘ – against Buckminster Fuller’s ordering – i.e. ‘comprehensive anticipatory design science’.

Thus this article is based on the major premise:—

… that in order to define his own work Cedric Price matched his ordering against Buckminster Fuller’s.

However, much of Cedric Price’s early work on anticipatory was published in an influential architectural ‘design science’ monthly, namely, Architectural Design (AD). Thus the minor premise of this article is:—

.. that Cedric Price’s ordering is linked with AD.

What can we do?

3.1 If we can accept both premises then we can draw the conclusion:—

… that Buckminster Fuller’s ordering (CADS) is associated with AD.

The AD in the conclusion refers to the international journal Architectural Design edited by Monica Pidgeon from 1946 until 1975. However, the magazine has also been described as:—

“this influential architectural ‘design science’ monthly”

Marchbank, P. [6]