🌍 “I’d like to discuss this”

‘Fantasia on Edukit’ by Norman Fellows

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Disaster Planning

Map of earthquakes (M6.0+) 1900-2017 [1]


This article is predicated on a comment made by Cedric Price, namely:—

“The whole question of disaster planning is unlikely to even be satisfactorily resolved in physical terms. Only when Agadir and Aberfan are recognised as likely events will the necessary legislation and management enable ‘disasterplanning to afford sufficient anticipatory design effort and product.”

Price, 1970, ‘Surface oil containment‘ [2]


Contents[hide] 1 What do we know? 2 Why do we care? 3 What can we do? 4 References 5 Related articles on Designing Buildings

What do we know?


1.1 Earthquakes

  • The first point is do we recognise Agadir as a likely event?

Table 1 below indicates the numbers of earthquakes and resulting deaths since Agadir:—

DecadeNumber of EarthquakesNumber of DeathsSource
1961-197042126,443Wikipedia
1971-198042349,908Wikipedia
1981-19904391,328Wikipedia
1991-20006362,176Wikipedia
2001-2010345612,956Wikipedia
2011-202037241,910Wikipedia
TOTALS9071,284,721

Thus we know:—

  • … that Agadir is a likely event.

1.2 Landslides

  • The second point is do we recognise Aberfan as a likely event?

Table 2 below indicates the numbers of landslides and resulting deaths since Aberfan:—

DecadeNumber of LandslidesNumber of DeathsSource
1966-1970722,674Wikipedia
1971-1980111,287ib.
1981-1990523,188ib.
1991-2000730,096ib
2001-2010163,340ib.
2011-2020379,162ib’
TOTALS8389,797

Thus we know:—

  • … that Aberfan is a likely event.

Why do we care?


2.1 Research

Air Structures Research: diagram for surface oil containment – Cedric Price © CCA used with permission

Drawing 72 36 above illustrates a project which occurred just before the Torrey Canyon oil spill, This disaster ied to a number of changes in international regulations. For example:—

“…the International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage (CLC) of 1969, which imposed strict liability on ship owners without the need to prove negligence, and the 1973 International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships. (Wikipedia)

However, according to Wikipedia, there have been 212 confirmed spills since Torrey Canyon.

Furthermore, the lists of disasters below indicate the increasing numbers of disasters:—

Thus we care because the numbers of disasters and deaths indicated in Tables 1 and 2; the number of confirmed spills since Torrey Canyon; and the increasing numbers of disasters; each provide evidence to support the argument, namely:—


2,2 Development

The graph below indicates the trend in the number of disasters since 1900. [3]

In contrast, the bar chart below indicates the number of deaths from all disasters for each decade since the 1900s. [4]

Thus we also care because (a) the trend in the number of disasters is upwards and (b) although the average numbers of deaths from disasters has reduced from more than 500,000 in the 1920s to less than 50,000 in the 2010s, the downward trend has effectively plateaued since the 1990s.


What can we do?


3.1 Interest

This article affirms its premises and proves the validity of the argument.

It therefore reaches a valid conclusion, namely:—

The crucial question now is what can architects do?

In the ‘ACTION and inaction’ section of ‘Works II’ Cedric Price has pointed at:—

“…reasons for architects to involve themselves continuously in anticipatory design as recommended by Buckminster Fuller.”

Price, C., 1984, ‘Works II’, aka ‘The Square Book

In fact, we know from a talk that Buckminster Fuller recommended a way for architects to involve themselves:—

“There is an effective strategy open to the architects. Whereas doctors deal with the interior organisms of man, architects deal with the exterior organisms of man. Architects might join with one another to carry on their work in laboratories as do doctors in anticipatory medicine. Architects might solve design problems of world-resource use before people get into resource troubles. Architects might thus join forces, as do scientists, with the integrity of inter-self accrediting of the respective abilities of each individual on the team. Architects might begin the laboratory pooling of their resource capabilities at the university level.”

Fuller, B., 1959, ‘The Comprehensive Man’, quoted in Fellows, N., 2022, ‘Anticipatory Design

Thus this article advocates:—

  • … we can go beyond merely caring about disaster planning – i.e. having an interest in it – and actively engage with it.

3.2 Engagement

To be continued…


This article was written by Norman Fellows.

References


Fellows, N. (2022), ‘Anticipatory Design‘, Designing Buildings

Our World in Data (2020) ‘Number of recorded natural, disaster events, All natural disasters, 1900 to 2019‘ [3]

Our World in Data (2020) ‘Decadal average: Number of deaths from disasters‘ [4]

Phoenix7777 (2018) ‘Map of earthquakes 1900-2017‘ [1]

Price, C. (1970) Cedric Price Supplement No. 1, AD/10/70 [2]

Price, C. (1966-1971) ‘Air Structures Research‘, Canadian Centre for Architecture

Wikipedia (2022) ‘Lists of disasters’

Wikipedia (2022) ‘Lists of 20th-century earthquakes

Wikipedia (2022) ‘List of earthquakes 2001–2010

Wikipedia (2022) ‘List of earthquakes 2011-2020

Wikipedia (2022) ‘List of landslides

Wikipedia (2022) ‘List of oil spills

Related articles on Designing Buildings


Archiblog 08:53, 11 Sep 2022 (BST)

Anticipatory Design

What do we know?

1.1 An etymology of the term ‘anticipatory design’ found its earliest recorded occurrence in the ‘Annual Discourse to the RIBA‘ delivered by Buckminster Fuller in which he defined his work, namely:—

“comprehensive anticipatory design science”

Fuller, 1958, ‘Experimental Probing of Architectural Initiative’ [1]

The next occurrence was found in a talk in which Buckminster Fuller referred to:—

“comprehensive anticipatory design science architects

Fuller, 1959, ‘The Comprehensive Man’ [2]

Thus we know from his talk that Buckminster Fuller recommended a way for architects to involve themselves:—

“There is an effective strategy open to the architects. Whereas doctors deal with the interior organisms of man, architects deal with the exterior organisms of man. Architects might join with one another to carry on their work in laboratories as do doctors in anticipatory medicine. Architects might solve design problems of world-resource use before people get into resource troubles. Architects might thus join forces, as do scientists, with the integrity of inter-self accrediting of the respective abilities of each individual on the team. Architects might begin the laboratory pooling of their resource capabilities at the university level.”

Fuller, ib.

1.2 An interview of Cedric Price was conducted in which he defined his work, namely:—

anticipatory designPrice, in Fellows, N., 1993a, ‘Transcript – Interview of Cedric Price‘ [3]

However, the same etymology also found the first recorded occurrence of the term ‘anticipatory design‘ made by Cedric Price, namely:—

“Only when Agadir and Aberfan are recognised as likely events will the necessary legislation and management enable ‘disasterplanning to afford sufficient anticipatory design effort and product.”

Price, 1970, ‘Cedric Price Supplement No. 1′ [4]

Thus we know:—

Why do we care?

2.1 The way in which the work of Buckminster Fuller and Cedric Price are related sparked a follow-up interview of Cedric Price in which he was asked :—

“Are (“comprehensive anticipatory design science” and “anticipatory design“) synonymous or are there important differences?”

Fellows, N., 1996, ‘Transcript – Interview of Cedric Price (3)’ [5]

Cedric Price replied:—

“I think the most important difference is the ‘anticipatory design‘ – which is my word (sic) – and ‘anticipatory design science’. The difference between that is that I am assuming that there is a science involved with various aspects of anticipatory design but my assumption is therefore narrowing it down to relation to systems or products that result from such design. So mine is a narrowing of Bucky’s. That’s the main point. The comprehensive is as good as you make it. You know we both agree it should be comprehensive. I think that my concept of comprehensive would be limited through lack of comprehensivity (sic) in the Bucky phraseology. […] Bucky’s was fuller but he was – I mean it was more comprehensive but he was interested in a design science. I was assuming there is a design science and just evidencing it in actual objects or systems.”

Price, 1996, in Fellows, N., ib.

Thus there are important differences between Fuller and Price’s work.

2.2 The important differences quoted verbatim above indicate that Cedric Price identified the need to define his own work and proposed a solution to himself in which he matched his ordering – i.e. ‘anticipatory design‘ – against Buckminster Fuller’s ordering – i.e. ‘comprehensive anticipatory design science’.

Thus this article is based on the major premise:—

However, much of Cedric Price’s early work on anticipatory was published in an influential architecturaldesign science’ monthly, namely, Architectural Design (AD). Thus the minor premise of this article is:—

  • .. that Cedric Price’s ordering is linked with AD.
Item 22654.jpg

What can we do?

3.1 If we can accept both premises then we can draw the conclusion:—

The AD in the conclusion refers to the international journal Architectural Design edited by Monica Pidgeon from 1946 until 1975. However, the magazine has also been described as:—

“this influential architecturaldesign science’ monthly”

Marchbank, P. [6]

Item 20842.jpeg

Thus we can fill the gap left by Pidgeon when she left Architectural Design with Anticipatory Design or AD for short.

3.2

Item 12183 Medium.jpg

To be continued…


This article was written by Norman Fellows. It is a revision of an outline published on the AD website at https://anticipatorydesign.wordpress.com/

References

Fuller, R. B. (1963) Ideas and Integrities, New York, Collier [1] [2]

Fellows, N. (1993) Transcript – Interview of Cedric Price, Archiblog, Google Drive [3]

Price, C. (1970) Cedric Price Supplement No. 1, AD/10/70 [4]

Fellows, N. (1996) Transcript – Interview of Cedric Price (3), Unpublished [5]

Marchbank, P. (2021) Magazines: Architectural Design (AD), pearcemarchbank.com [6]

Related articles on Designing Buildings


Archiblog 07:44, 11 Sep 2022 (BST)

Domestikit

Fellows, N. (2022) Domestikit

“I think the housing studies which came out of the Potteries Thinkbelt are still very significant indeed and, you know, there are infinite ways they could be developed but the basic principles there of short-life twenty-five year renewal cycle, services as far as possible above ground, leasehold rather than ownership – in other words, the house as a machine like a car which you can park and renew when it becomes defunct – that to me is still a very important statement which has yet to be developed properly because in this country buildings are, to quote Bucky Fuller, “Fancy nozzles on servicing systems of land”, and they are not seen as homes at all – just as investment in a nozzle.”

Steve Mullin (2016) in AA (2016) ‘Cedric Price Day Part 1‘

🌍 Edukit

Fellows, N. (2015) Edukit

Composed of 238 still images and designed to provide a visual expression of the comprehensivity of Edukit, ‘A Glimpse of Edukit (2015) [Demo]’ serves as an introduction to the World Educational System proposed by Norman Fellows. In this short simulation, images are combined into seven separate digital sequences, projected simultaneously onto seven 6-by-9-metre screens (after Eames). The real-world version will include over 2,000 still and moving images, have a running time of 12 minutes, and be shown in 60m diameter Fuller Domes at the approximate population centre of each of the world’s continents except the Antarctic.

Norman Fellows (2015)