Anticipatory Design

• Map of earthquakes (M6.0+) 1900-2017 [1]

This article is predicated on a comment made by Cedric Price, namely:—

“The whole question of disaster planning is unlikely to even be satisfactorily resolved in physical terms. Only when Agadir and Aberfan are recognised as likely events will the necessary legislation and management enable ‘disaster‘ planning to afford sufficient anticipatory design effort and product.”

Price, 1970, ‘Surface oil containment‘ [2]

Contents[hide] 1 What do we know? 2 Why do we care? 3 What can we do? 4 References 5 Related articles on Designing Buildings

What do we know?

1.1 Earthquakes

The first point is do we recognise Agadir as a likely event?

Table 1 below indicates the numbers of earthquakes and resulting deaths since Agadir:—

Decade	Number of Earthquakes	Number of Deaths	Source
1961-1970	42	126,443	Wikipedia
1971-1980	42	349,908	Wikipedia
1981-1990	43	91,328	Wikipedia
1991-2000	63	62,176	Wikipedia
2001-2010	345	612,956	Wikipedia
2011-2020	372	41,910	Wikipedia
TOTALS	907	1,284,721

Thus we know:—

… that Agadir is a likely event.

1.2 Landslides

The second point is do we recognise Aberfan as a likely event?

Table 2 below indicates the numbers of landslides and resulting deaths since Aberfan:—

Decade	Number of Landslides	Number of Deaths	Source
1966-1970	7	22,674	Wikipedia
1971-1980	11	1,287	ib.
1981-1990	5	23,188	ib.
1991-2000	7	30,096	ib
2001-2010	16	3,340	ib.
2011-2020	37	9,162	ib’
TOTALS	83	89,797

Thus we know:—

… that Aberfan is a likely event.

Why do we care?

2.1 Research

The next point is “why should an ARCHITECT be interested”. (Price, ib., capitals in original)

• Air Structures Research: diagram for surface oil containment – Cedric Price © CCA used with permission

Drawing 72 36 above illustrates a project which occurred just before the Torrey Canyon oil spill, This disaster ied to a number of changes in international regulations. For example:—

“…the International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage (CLC) of 1969, which imposed strict liability on ship owners without the need to prove negligence, and the 1973 International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships.“ (Wikipedia)

However, according to Wikipedia, there have been 212 confirmed spills since Torrey Canyon.

Furthermore, the lists of disasters below indicate the increasing numbers of disasters:—

Thus we care because the numbers of disasters and deaths indicated in Tables 1 and 2; the number of confirmed spills since Torrey Canyon; and the increasing numbers of disasters; each provide evidence to support the argument, namely:—

… that the legislation and management deemed necessary by Cedric Price is missing.

2,2 Development

The final point is how much anticipatory design effort and product do we deem sufficient?

The graph below indicates the trend in the number of disasters since 1900. [3]

In contrast, the bar chart below indicates the number of deaths from all disasters for each decade since the 1900s. [4]

Thus we also care because (a) the trend in the number of disasters is upwards and (b) although the average numbers of deaths from disasters has reduced from more than 500,000 in the 1920s to less than 50,000 in the 2010s, the downward trend has effectively plateaued since the 1990s.

What can we do?

3.1 Interest

This article affirms its premises and proves the validity of the argument.

It therefore reaches a valid conclusion, namely:—

… that the amount of anticipatory design effort and product we deem sufficient must be enough to mitigate the effects of the increasing number of disasters and to reduce the number of deaths from disasters to zero.

The crucial question now is what can architects do?

In the ‘ACTION and inaction’ section of ‘Works II’ Cedric Price has pointed at:—

“…reasons for architects to involve themselves continuously in anticipatory design as recommended by Buckminster Fuller.”

Price, C., 1984, ‘Works II’, aka ‘The Square Book‘

In fact, we know from a talk that Buckminster Fuller recommended a way for architects to involve themselves:—

“There is an effective strategy open to the architects. Whereas doctors deal with the interior organisms of man, architects deal with the exterior organisms of man. Architects might join with one another to carry on their work in laboratories as do doctors in anticipatory medicine. Architects might solve design problems of world-resource use before people get into resource troubles. Architects might thus join forces, as do scientists, with the integrity of inter-self accrediting of the respective abilities of each individual on the team. Architects might begin the laboratory pooling of their resource capabilities at the university level.”